Market
What will be the outcome of the hostages' situation by January 20, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
All hostages released • 25%
Some hostages released • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
Hostages rescued • 25%
Official statements from the U.S. government or credible news reports
Story
Trump Warns Hamas: Release 100 Hostages, Including 7 Americans, by January 20 or Face Consequences
Dec 27, 2024, 04:49 PM
As the January 20, 2025 deadline approaches, President-elect Donald Trump has issued a stern warning to Hamas regarding the release of hostages, including seven American citizens, still being held. Trump emphasized that if the hostages are not released by this date, 'all hell is going to break out.' This warning aligns with advice from incoming U.S. National Security Adviser Michael Waltz, who urged Hamas to release the hostages immediately. The situation is critical, with reports indicating that 100 hostages remain captive. The dynamics surrounding the hostages and potential ceasefire negotiations are complicated, as Israel may believe a deal could be more feasible once Trump assumes office. The urgency of the situation is underscored by the collaborative efforts of Trump and President Biden's advisors to secure a resolution before the impending deadline.
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Other outcome • 25%
Hostages released • 25%
Hostages partially released • 25%
Hostages not released • 25%
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Mild condition • 25%
Hostage status unknown • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
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Partial release of hostages • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
Hostage situation unresolved • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
Partial release of hostages • 25%
Hostages remain in captivity • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
Some hostages released • 25%
Military action initiated • 25%
Exchange Completed • 25%
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Other Outcome • 25%
Exchange Not Completed • 25%
All released • 25%
Some released • 25%
Status unknown • 25%
None released • 25%
Some in poor health • 25%
All in good health • 25%
Majority in poor health • 25%
Unknown condition • 25%
Transferred to another location • 25%
Unknown • 25%
Gaza • 25%
Released • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
Hostages remain but negotiations continue • 25%
Some hostages released • 25%