Market
Outcome of hostage exchange deal in Gaza ceasefire by mid-2025?
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Israeli National Security•Benjamin Netanyahu•Gaza ceasefire•Hamas•Otzma Yehudit•Jewish Power•Negev•Galilee•Yitzhak Wasserlauf•Amichai Eliyahu
Resolution / Starting Odds
Successful exchange, all hostages released • 25%
Partial exchange, some hostages released • 25%
Failed exchange, no hostages released • 25%
Exchange delayed beyond timeframe • 25%
Reports from the Israeli government, Hamas, or credible news outlets
Story
Israeli National Security Minister Ben-Gvir and Party Resign Over Gaza Ceasefire Deal
Jan 19, 2025, 08:29 AM
On January 19, 2025, Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir resigned from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government in protest over the Gaza ceasefire deal with Hamas. The ceasefire agreement includes a hostage exchange. Ben-Gvir, leader of the far-right Otzma Yehudit (Jewish Power) party, announced his resignation along with other party ministers, including Negev and Galilee Development Minister Yitzhak Wasserlauf and Heritage Minister Amichai Eliyahu. He criticized the deal as a capitulation to Hamas.
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No exchange occurs • 25%
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Information on Avera Mengistu and Hisham al-Sayed received • 25%
Yahya Sinwar's body returned • 25%
Hadar Goldin's body returned • 25%
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