Market
What will be the outcome of the first phase of the Israel-Hamas negotiations?
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Israeli•Benjamin Netanyahu•Doha•Hamas•Gaza•Mossad•David Barnea•Shin Bet•Ronen Bar•Nitzan Alon•Netanyahu•Steve Witkoff•Middle East•Donald Trump•Trump•Witkoff•Qatari•Qatar•Egypt
Resolution / Starting Odds
Complete exchange • 25%
Partial exchange • 25%
No exchange • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official confirmations from the Israeli government, Hamas, or mediating countries.
Story
Netanyahu Sends Delegation to Doha for Gaza Ceasefire and Hostage Talks Amid Trump's Envoy Push
Jan 11, 2025, 02:15 PM
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has dispatched a high-level delegation to Doha to advance negotiations aimed at securing a ceasefire and the release of hostages held by Hamas in Gaza. The delegation includes Mossad chief David Barnea, Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar, and Maj. Gen. Nitzan Alon, a key figure in hostage negotiations. The move follows a meeting between Netanyahu and Steve Witkoff, the Middle East envoy for U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, who has been pressing for a deal before Trump's inauguration on January 20. Witkoff, after discussions with Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani, emphasized Trump's desire for a swift resolution. The negotiations, mediated by Qatar, Egypt, and the U.S., have seen cautious progress, with reports indicating that 90% of the deal points have been agreed upon. However, disagreements persist, particularly regarding the transition from the first phase of the deal, which involves a humanitarian exchange of hostages, to subsequent phases.
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Similar markets
Other outcome • 25%
Successful prisoner exchange • 25%
Security guarantees achieved • 25%
Negotiations fail • 25%
Ceasefire holds but hostages not released • 25%
Ceasefire breaks but hostages released • 25%
Ceasefire holds and hostages released • 25%
Ceasefire breaks and hostages not released • 25%
Temporary extension of ceasefire • 25%
Successful agreement reached • 25%
Military escalation resumes • 25%
Negotiations collapse • 25%
Partial agreement with modifications • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
60-day ceasefire agreed • 25%
No hostages returned • 25%
Partial hostage return • 25%
Ceasefire not implemented • 25%
All hostages returned • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Complete exchange as planned • 25%
Partial exchange • 25%
Exchange fails • 25%
Resumption of hostilities • 25%
Permanent peace agreement • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Extension of ceasefire • 25%
Ceasefire with hostages released • 25%
Ceasefire without hostages released • 25%
No ceasefire, hostages released • 25%
No ceasefire, no hostages released • 25%
Successful ceasefire • 25%
Failed negotiations • 25%
Partial agreement • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Partial agreement (e.g., hostage release only) • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Partially completed • 25%
Other • 25%
Not completed • 25%
Completed as planned • 25%
Permanent peace agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire extended • 25%
Ceasefire ends with resumed hostilities • 25%
Other outcome • 25%