Market
What will be the outcome of the ceasefire agreement on hostilities in Gaza within one month of approval?
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Qatar•Israel•Hamas•Gaza•Doha•Israeli•Mossad•Qatari•Joe Biden•Donald Trump•Trump•Middle East•Steve Witkoff•Egypt•United States•Mohammed Sinwar
Resolution / Starting Odds
Complete cessation of hostilities • 25%
Partial reduction in hostilities • 25%
No change in hostilities • 25%
Increase in hostilities • 25%
Reports from credible news agencies or official statements
Story
Qatar Presents Final Gaza Ceasefire Deal After Breakthrough Talks Involving Envoys of Biden and Trump
Jan 13, 2025, 09:35 AM
Qatar, acting as mediator, has presented Israel and Hamas with a final draft of a ceasefire and hostage release agreement intended to end the over 15-month war in Gaza. The breakthrough was achieved after midnight negotiations in Doha involving Israeli intelligence officials, including the Mossad Chief, the Qatari Prime Minister, and envoys from both President Joe Biden and President-elect Donald Trump, including Trump's Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff. Mediators including Qatar, Egypt, and the United States have agreed on the draft and are awaiting approval from both parties. The agreement aims to secure the release of nearly 100 hostages still held in Gaza. Responses from Israel and Hamas are expected within 24 hours, with the decision on the Hamas side resting with Mohammed Sinwar, leader of Hamas's military wing. There is urgency to finalize the deal before President-elect Trump's inauguration.
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Similar markets
Other outcome • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
60-day ceasefire agreed • 25%
Partial agreement with modifications • 25%
Ceasefire successfully completed • 25%
Ceasefire ended early due to violations • 25%
Ceasefire extended beyond six weeks • 25%
Ceasefire collapsed, conflict resumed • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Ceasefire breaks but hostages released • 25%
Ceasefire holds and hostages released • 25%
Ceasefire holds but hostages not released • 25%
Ceasefire breaks and hostages not released • 25%
Ceasefire broken • 25%
Ceasefire extended • 25%
New negotiations • 25%
Other • 25%
Resumption of hostilities • 25%
Extension of ceasefire • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
Ceasefire holds with minor violations • 25%
Ceasefire holds without violations • 25%
Ceasefire breaks with major violations • 25%
Ceasefire breaks with full-scale conflict • 25%
Failed negotiations • 25%
Ongoing conflict • 25%
Short-term ceasefire • 25%
Long-term ceasefire • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Temporary ceasefire extension • 25%
Permanent ceasefire • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Resumption of conflict • 25%
No change • 25%
Significant improvement • 25%
Moderate improvement • 25%
Deterioration • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
Partial compliance • 25%
Ceasefire collapses • 25%
New agreement reached • 25%