Market
What will be the outcome of negotiations involving Palestinian detainees by June 30, 2025?
2
Steve Witkoff•Donald Trump•Middle East•Gaza Strip•Israel•Hamas•Witkoff•Trump•Palestinians•Israeli•Benjamin Netanyahu•Jewish Sabbath
Resolution / Starting Odds
Major release of detainees • 25%
Partial release of detainees • 25%
No release of detainees • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official statements from the Israeli government and Palestinian authorities, verified by major news outlets
Story
Trump's Middle East Envoy Steve Witkoff to Visit Gaza to Maintain Ceasefire and Hostages Release
Jan 19, 2025, 12:18 AM
Steve Witkoff, President-elect Donald Trump's envoy to the Middle East, is considering a visit to the Gaza Strip as part of his efforts to maintain a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas. Witkoff, a billionaire Jewish-American real estate developer and a close friend of Trump, played a key role in negotiating the ceasefire, which is set to begin on Sunday. The agreement aims to facilitate the release of hostages held by Hamas and Palestinians detained by Israel over a six-week period. Witkoff's approach has been noted for its directness, as he reportedly pressured Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to finalize the deal, even on the Jewish Sabbath. His involvement underscores the fragile nature of the ceasefire, with plans to be a near-constant presence in the region to address any issues that could jeopardize the agreement.
View original story
Similar markets
Partial hostage release • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
New hostages taken • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
Release canceled • 25%
All prisoners released as planned • 25%
Some prisoners released, some delays • 25%
No prisoners released • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Partial hostage release • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
Hostage death toll increases • 25%
No progress in negotiations • 25%
Partial release of hostages • 25%
Partial agreement reached • 25%
Full agreement reached • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Agreement reached and hostages exchanged • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Negotiations continue with no agreement • 25%
Negotiations break down completely • 25%
Full implementation • 25%
Agreement abandoned • 25%
No implementation • 25%
Partial implementation • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Extended ceasefire • 25%
Full peace agreement • 25%
Other • 25%
Resumption of hostilities • 25%
Extended ceasefire • 25%
Permanent peace agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Partial Agreement • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
No Agreement • 25%
Hostage Release Only • 25%
Successful exchange with ceasefire • 25%
Successful exchange without ceasefire • 25%
No exchange, continued negotiations • 25%
No exchange, negotiations collapse • 25%
Some hostages released • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire agreement only • 25%
Hostage exchange deal finalized • 25%