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Outcome of Israeli incursion into Syria by December 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Withdrawal without conditions • 25%
Withdrawal with conditions • 25%
Continued military presence • 25%
Escalation to broader conflict • 25%
Reports from international news agencies or official government statements
Story
Israeli Forces Cross into Syria from Golan Heights, Shelling Quneitra
Dec 8, 2024, 10:49 PM
Israeli ground forces have crossed into Syrian territory for the first time since the 1973 October War, entering beyond the demilitarized zone in the Quneitra area near the Golan Heights, according to two Israeli officials cited by The New York Times. The incursion involved Israeli tanks, and reports suggest that artillery shelling was launched into Syrian territory. This marks a significant escalation in the region, with the last similar incident occurring during the Yom Kippur War.
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Negotiated settlement • 25%
Ongoing occupation • 25%
Withdrawal without conflict • 25%
Extended military conflict • 25%
Increased Presence • 25%
Complete Withdrawal • 25%
Status Quo Maintained • 25%
Partial Withdrawal • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Partial withdrawal • 25%
Continued occupation • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased tensions with Russia • 25%
UN condemnation • 25%
No significant international response • 25%
Escalation into wider conflict • 25%
Prolonged deployment due to ongoing threats • 25%
Deployment leads to peace negotiations • 25%
Complete withdrawal with no incidents • 25%
Full withdrawal • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Expansion of control • 25%
Continued presence with limited engagement • 25%
Mediation Efforts Initiated • 25%
Resolution Passed Condemning Israel • 25%
No Significant Action • 25%
Other • 25%
No incursion confirmed • 25%
Partial incursion confirmed • 25%
Outcome remains disputed • 25%
Confirmed incursion • 25%
Operations escalate into broader conflict • 25%
IDF maintains control in targeted areas • 25%
IDF faces significant resistance • 25%
IDF withdraws without achieving objectives • 25%
