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What will be the outcome of Iran's strategic influence in Syria by end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased influence • 25%
Decreased influence • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
Analyses from geopolitical think tanks or reports from major international media
Story
Iran Evacuates Quds Force, IRGC, and Embassy Staff from Syria as Assad's Regime Falters
Dec 7, 2024, 01:03 AM
Iran has begun evacuating its military personnel, including senior Quds Force commanders, from Syria, according to reports from The New York Times. This move signals Iran's assessment that it is unable to help maintain President Bashar al-Assad's grip on power amid a resurgent rebel offensive. The evacuation includes not only military officials but also IRGC personnel, embassy staff, diplomatic staff, and their families, as well as some civilians. The decision to withdraw comes as rebel forces, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, have made significant advances in Aleppo, Hama, and Deir al-Zour, putting increased pressure on Assad's regime. Iran's retreat is seen as an extraordinary development, given Syria's strategic importance to Iran's regional ambitions.
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No significant change • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Decreased Iranian influence • 25%
Increased Iranian influence • 25%
Other • 25%
Iran mediates a peace agreement • 25%
Iran withdraws support from Syria • 25%
Iran maintains current involvement • 25%
Full withdrawal • 25%
Decreased military presence • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other regional power gains influence • 25%
Increased Iranian influence • 25%
Decreased Iranian influence • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Strengthened relations • 25%
Severed relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Weakened relations • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
Increased influence • 25%
Decreased influence • 25%
Maintained status quo • 25%
Diplomatic stalemate • 25%
Iran increases presence • 25%
Iran maintains current stance • 25%
Iran reduces presence • 25%
Other • 25%
Opposes current Syrian government • 25%
Continues to support Syrian sovereignty • 25%
Shifts to a more neutral stance • 25%
Improved relations with Iran • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Strained relations with neighboring countries • 25%
Improved relations with Western countries • 25%
Decreased stability • 25%
Increased stability • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other impact • 25%
Troop deployment • 25%
Military advisors only • 25%
No involvement • 25%
Humanitarian aid only • 25%