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What will be the outcome of Iran-Syria diplomatic relations by end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Strengthened relations • 25%
Weakened relations • 25%
No change • 25%
Diplomatic fallout • 25%
Official statements from both governments or reports from credible news agencies
Story
Iran Evacuates Quds Force, IRGC, and Embassy Staff from Syria as Assad's Regime Falters
Dec 7, 2024, 01:03 AM
Iran has begun evacuating its military personnel, including senior Quds Force commanders, from Syria, according to reports from The New York Times. This move signals Iran's assessment that it is unable to help maintain President Bashar al-Assad's grip on power amid a resurgent rebel offensive. The evacuation includes not only military officials but also IRGC personnel, embassy staff, diplomatic staff, and their families, as well as some civilians. The decision to withdraw comes as rebel forces, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, have made significant advances in Aleppo, Hama, and Deir al-Zour, putting increased pressure on Assad's regime. Iran's retreat is seen as an extraordinary development, given Syria's strategic importance to Iran's regional ambitions.
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Status quo maintained • 25%
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Weakened relations • 25%
Other • 25%
Improved • 25%
Unchanged • 25%
Deteriorated • 25%
Iran maintains current stance • 25%
Iran increases presence • 25%
Diplomatic stalemate • 25%
Iran reduces presence • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Formal diplomatic break • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Increased Iranian influence • 25%
Decreased Iranian influence • 25%
Other regional power gains influence • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Improved relations with Iran • 25%
Strained relations with neighboring countries • 25%
Improved relations with Western countries • 25%
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Talks stalled • 25%
Embassies reopened • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Increased Iranian influence • 25%
Decreased Iranian influence • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Hostile relations develop • 25%
No significant progress • 25%
Informal cooperation agreements • 25%
Formal diplomatic relations established • 25%
