Market
How will China primarily respond to US pressure over Iran oil exports by December 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Increase imports from Iran • 25%
Decrease imports from Iran • 25%
Maintain current import levels • 25%
Other diplomatic actions • 25%
Official statements from the Chinese government or credible news reports
Story
Iran Exports Nearly 3 Million Barrels of Oil from China for First Time Since 2018, Potentially Raising $1 Billion
Jan 11, 2025, 01:00 PM
Iran has successfully exported nearly 3 million barrels of oil from storage facilities in China, marking the first instance of such exports since the oil was stored there in 2018. The move comes as Iran seeks to raise funds, potentially to support its allied militia groups in the Middle East. The oil, part of a larger stockpile of 25 million barrels held in Chinese ports, has been a point of contention between Iran and China due to U.S. sanctions. The export follows negotiations between Tehran and Beijing, with the oil being shipped out after China approved the move in December. The sales of this oil could generate up to $1 billion for Iran, amidst concerns from Western diplomats that the funds might be used to finance Iran's militias.
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No major response • 25%
EU sanctions • 25%
UN sanctions • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Decrease imports • 25%
Ban imports • 25%
Maintain current level • 25%
Increase imports • 25%
Diplomatic protest • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Cyber countermeasures • 25%
Retaliatory sanctions • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
Military action • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Retaliatory sanctions • 25%
Military escalation • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Increased arms sales to Taiwan • 25%
Retaliatory sanctions • 25%
Supportive • 25%
No official reaction • 25%
Opposed • 25%
Neutral • 25%