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What will be the outcome of Iran's effort to sell the stranded oil by the end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Sold to China • 25%
Sold to another country • 25%
Not sold • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Official announcements from Iranian or Chinese government or major news outlets
Story
Iran Seeks to Sell 25 Million Barrels of Stranded Oil Worth $1.7 Billion from China After Six Years
Jan 8, 2025, 11:40 AM
Iran is seeking to recover approximately 25 million barrels of oil, valued at $1.7 billion, that have been stranded in Chinese ports for six years due to sanctions imposed by former U.S. President Donald Trump. Reports indicate that Iran is pressuring China to allow the sale of this oil, which has been held up in ports like Dalian and Zhoushan. The stranded oil has been in limbo since the sanctions were enacted, and Iranian and Chinese sources confirm the ongoing negotiations for its release.
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Increased export agreements • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
No change in agreements • 25%
Decreased export agreements • 25%
New sanctions are imposed • 25%
Sanctions remain unchanged • 25%
Sanctions are partially lifted • 25%
Sanctions are fully lifted • 25%
Domestic economic development • 25%
Nuclear program funding • 25%
Other purposes • 25%
Support allied militia groups • 25%
Other countries become major buyers • 25%
European countries become major buyers • 25%
China remains the largest buyer • 25%
India becomes the largest buyer • 25%