Market
What will be the outcome of diplomatic efforts between Israel and Houthis by December 31, 2025?
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Israel Katz•Israel•Ismail Haniyeh•Hamas•Tehran•Katz•Yemen•Houthi•Houthis•Haniyeh•Yahya Sinwar•Gaza•Hassan Nasrallah•Lebanon
Resolution / Starting Odds
Successful de-escalation • 25%
Continued tensions • 25%
Increased military conflict • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official statements from involved governments, reports from international diplomatic bodies
Story
Israel Katz Admits to July 31 Assassination of Hamas Leader Haniyeh in Tehran, Warns Yemen's Houthis
Dec 24, 2024, 01:00 AM
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz has publicly admitted for the first time that Israel was responsible for the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, a senior Hamas leader, in Tehran on July 31. Katz's acknowledgment came alongside a warning to Yemen's Houthi rebels, indicating that Israel would take similar action against their leadership. He stated that Israel would target the Houthis' strategic infrastructure and 'decapitate' their leaders, drawing parallels to the actions taken against Haniyeh in Tehran, Yahya Sinwar in Gaza, and Hassan Nasrallah in Lebanon. This admission escalates tensions in the region, particularly in light of ongoing conflicts involving Hamas and the Houthis.
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Peace agreement reached • 25%
Other significant outcome • 25%
Increased sanctions on Iran • 25%
Continued military skirmishes • 25%
Peace agreement • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
International intervention • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Increased Houthi aggression • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Significant Houthi retreat • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
No change in Houthi activity • 25%
Increase in Houthi attacks • 25%
Significant reduction in Houthi attacks • 25%
Peace Treaty • 25%
Other • 25%
Continued Conflict • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Increased military action • 25%
Humanitarian aid agreement • 25%
No significant outcome • 25%
Continued hostilities • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Escalation to wider conflict • 25%
Peace agreement • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Ongoing negotiations with no agreement • 25%
Successful ceasefire agreement • 25%
Stalemate with no progress • 25%
Partial success • 25%
Successful dismantling of Houthi threat • 25%
Increased Houthi retaliation • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Peace negotiations initiated • 25%
Houthi resistance strengthens • 25%
Decisive Israeli victory • 25%
Significant Reduction in Houthi Attacks • 25%
Stalemate with No Significant Change • 25%
Increased Houthi Retaliation • 25%
Other • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Military action taken • 25%
Other • 25%