Market
What will be the major geopolitical outcome related to US aid to Ukraine by the end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Strengthened Ukraine defense • 25%
Increased tensions with Russia • 25%
Improved US-Europe relations • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Analysis from international relations experts or major news outlets
Story
US Sends $500 Million Aid to Ukraine Before Trump's Inauguration, Including HIMARS Munitions
Dec 12, 2024, 11:40 PM
The United States has announced a new $500 million military aid package for Ukraine, as confirmed by Secretary of State Antony Blinken. The package includes ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), 155mm and 105mm artillery rounds, air defense systems, drones, armored vehicles, Counter-Unmanned Aerial Systems (c-UAS) munitions, and protective equipment against biological, chemical, and nuclear threats. This marks the 72nd such drawdown package announced by the United States, bringing the total US security assistance to Ukraine to $62 billion since Russia's full-scale invasion began in February 2022. The Biden administration aims to bolster Ukraine's defense capabilities amid ongoing conflict with Russia and is seeking to deliver as much support as possible before President-elect Donald Trump's inauguration.
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Decrease in aid • 25%
Increase in aid • 25%
Complete cessation of aid • 25%
Maintain current aid levels • 25%
Aid completed successfully • 25%
Aid redirected to other priorities • 25%
Aid halted due to political changes • 25%
Aid partially completed • 25%
Postponement • 25%
Full approval • 25%
Rejection • 25%
Partial approval • 25%
Withdrawal of all military aid • 25%
Increased military aid • 25%
Decreased military aid • 25%
No change in military aid • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Conflict continues • 25%
Peace treaty signed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Partial guarantees • 25%
No guarantees • 25%
Full guarantees • 25%
Other • 25%
Internal EU political changes • 25%
Russian military actions • 25%
Other geopolitical developments • 25%
Ukraine's domestic reforms • 25%
No Change • 25%
Significant Improvement • 25%
Deterioration • 25%
Moderate Improvement • 25%
Increased conflict • 25%
Ceasefire negotiations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
No change • 25%
Decrease • 25%
Increase • 25%
Remain the same • 25%
Stop completely • 25%
Decrease • 25%
Increase • 25%
Proposals accepted • 25%
No decision • 25%
Proposals modified • 25%
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