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What will be the level of Western allies' involvement in Ukraine's negotiations by May 2025?
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Donald Trump•White House•Ukraine•Keith Kellogg•Trump•Kyiv•Moscow•Ukrainian•Volodymyr Zelensky•Western•Zelensky•NATO•Russia
Resolution / Starting Odds
High involvement • 25%
Moderate involvement • 25%
Low involvement • 25%
No involvement • 25%
Statements from Western governments or international news reports
Story
Trump Sets 100-Day Timeline to End Ukraine War, Aims for Sustainable Peace Amid Kyiv Concerns
Jan 12, 2025, 01:00 PM
Donald Trump, set to re-enter the White House, has revised his timeline for ending the war in Ukraine from a previously stated 24 hours to within 100 days of his inauguration. This adjustment was announced by Keith Kellogg, Trump's pick for special peace envoy, who aims to broker a 'solid and sustainable' agreement by May. The change in strategy has raised concerns in Kyiv about the potential for a peace deal that might favor Moscow. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has expressed readiness for a 'new chapter' with Trump's administration, emphasizing the need for continued cooperation and support from Western allies. Zelensky is advocating for a 'peace-through-strength' approach, seeking NATO protections and concrete security guarantees as part of any settlement. Trump's comments on understanding Russia's concerns about NATO have added complexity to the situation, as he has suggested that NATO's involvement with Ukraine was a significant issue for Russia.
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Similar markets
Moderate involvement • 25%
High involvement • 25%
No involvement • 25%
Low involvement • 25%
Humanitarian aid • 25%
Military deployment • 25%
Diplomatic support only • 25%
No involvement • 25%
Continued current support levels • 25%
Diplomatic resolution with Russia • 25%
Decreased involvement • 25%
Increased military involvement • 25%
Russia, US, EU, and other countries • 25%
Russia, US, and EU countries • 25%
Only Russia and the US • 25%
Other configurations • 25%
Decrease • 25%
No change • 25%
Significant increase • 25%
Moderate increase • 25%
Moderate Support • 33%
High Support • 33%
Low Support • 34%
Remained the same • 25%
Increased significantly • 25%
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Decreased • 25%
Diplomatic support only • 25%
Direct military support • 25%
Increased military aid • 25%
No change in involvement • 25%
Increased support • 25%
No support • 25%
Maintained current level • 25%
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No negotiations occur • 25%
Negotiations result in comprehensive agreements • 25%
Negotiations result in partial agreements • 25%
Negotiations occur with no agreements • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Peace agreement reached • 25%
Increased conflict • 25%
Decreased conflict • 25%
Majority support with consensus • 25%
No significant support • 25%
Minority support • 25%
Majority support but no consensus • 25%