Market
What will be the international response to Trump's Venezuela policy by 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Strong support • 25%
Moderate support • 25%
Strong opposition • 25%
Neutral stance • 25%
Statements from international organizations like the UN or OAS, or major news outlets
Story
Trump Administration Signals Intent for Regime Change in Venezuela, Targeting Maduro for Election Theft and Threats to Puerto Rico
Jan 18, 2025, 04:55 PM
The incoming administration of Donald Trump is signaling a strong desire for regime change in Venezuela, targeting President Nicolás Maduro. Trump's team has characterized Maduro as a 'criminal' who 'stole his election,' jailed political rivals, and even threatened to invade Puerto Rico. A Trump adviser indicated that the administration would not oppose the idea of Maduro residing alongside Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in Moscow. This stance reflects a broader strategy to isolate Maduro's regime, which is perceived as increasingly vulnerable. The comments suggest that Venezuela will be a significant focus during Trump's second term, with key figures in the administration, including future Secretary of State Marco Rubio, known for their opposition to the Maduro government.
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No significant action • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
Mediation efforts • 25%
Other actions • 25%
Sanctions against Maduro's government • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Calls for new elections • 25%
Recognition of González Urrutia • 25%
Mediation efforts initiated • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Sanctions against Maduro • 25%
Recognition of González by majority • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
UN-backed intervention occurs • 25%
Non-UN international intervention occurs • 25%
No military intervention • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
Diplomatic agreements • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Improved alliances • 25%
Sanctions imposed • 25%
Other • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations initiated • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Condemnation from international organizations • 25%
Neutral stance • 25%
Support from other countries • 25%
Support • 25%
No official response • 25%
Neutral • 25%
Condemnation • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Maduro is removed but stays in Venezuela • 25%
Maduro remains in power • 25%
Maduro goes into exile • 25%
Aligns more with the US • 25%
Other alignment • 25%
Neutral stance • 25%
Remains aligned with Russia/China/Iran • 25%
Mixed reactions • 25%
Supportive • 25%
Critical • 25%
Neutral • 25%
Condemnation of Venezuela's actions • 25%
Support for Venezuela's stance • 25%
Call for dialogue between Venezuela and Colombia • 25%
No significant response • 25%