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Will Nicolás Maduro step down as Venezuela's president by the end of 2025?
5
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official announcements from the Venezuelan government or credible news sources
Story
Trump Administration Signals Intent for Regime Change in Venezuela, Targeting Maduro for Election Theft and Threats to Puerto Rico
Jan 18, 2025, 04:55 PM
The incoming administration of Donald Trump is signaling a strong desire for regime change in Venezuela, targeting President Nicolás Maduro. Trump's team has characterized Maduro as a 'criminal' who 'stole his election,' jailed political rivals, and even threatened to invade Puerto Rico. A Trump adviser indicated that the administration would not oppose the idea of Maduro residing alongside Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in Moscow. This stance reflects a broader strategy to isolate Maduro's regime, which is perceived as increasingly vulnerable. The comments suggest that Venezuela will be a significant focus during Trump's second term, with key figures in the administration, including future Secretary of State Marco Rubio, known for their opposition to the Maduro government.
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No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Maduro remains in power • 25%
Maduro ousted by force • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Maduro steps down voluntarily • 25%
Partial recognition • 25%
Full recognition • 25%
Continued non-recognition • 25%
Increased diplomatic pressure • 25%