Market
What will be the impact on US-EU trade relations by December 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Improved relations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Trade war • 25%
Trade data from US and EU official sources, news analysis from reputable sources
Story
Trump Warns EU: Buy US Oil and Gas or Face 'Tariffs All the Way'
Dec 20, 2024, 06:46 AM
President-elect Donald Trump has threatened to impose tariffs on the European Union unless it reduces its trade deficit with the United States through large-scale purchases of American oil and gas. In a statement posted on Truth Social on Friday, Trump said he told the EU they must make up their 'tremendous deficit' with the US by buying American energy exports, warning that 'otherwise, it is tariffs all the way.' The U.S. is currently the world's largest exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and the biggest oil producer. Trump's ultimatum could escalate trade tensions with the EU ahead of his inauguration.
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Status quo maintained • 25%
Trade tensions escalate • 25%
Tariffs imposed • 25%
New energy trade deal • 25%
Minor economic impact • 25%
Economic growth despite tariffs • 25%
Significant economic downturn • 25%
No noticeable impact • 25%
Deterioration • 25%
Other • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Improvement • 25%
Other • 25%
Trade tensions escalate • 25%
Trade agreements reached • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
EU increases energy purchases • 25%
U.S. imposes tariffs • 25%
Negotiations lead to compromise • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Decrease in trade • 25%
Increase in trade • 25%
Negotiated settlement without tariffs • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Tariffs imposed on EU goods • 25%
EU increases purchases of US energy • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
New trade agreement • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Other significant event • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Significant trade conflict • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Status quo • 25%