Market
Will U.S.-EU trade negotiations begin by February 28, 2025?
4
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official announcements from the U.S. or EU trade representatives, or credible news sources
Story
President-elect Trump Warns EU to Reduce Trade Deficit by Buying U.S. Oil and Gas or Face Tariffs
Dec 20, 2024, 11:59 AM
President-elect Donald Trump has warned the European Union that it must reduce its trade deficit with the United States by making large-scale purchases of American oil and gas or face tariffs. In a message posted on Truth Social, Trump stated, "I told the European Union that they must make up their tremendous deficit with the United States by the large-scale purchase of our oil and gas. Otherwise, it is TARIFFS all the way!!!" The ultimatum suggests a potential trade confrontation if the EU does not comply with his demands.
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New energy trade deal • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Trade tensions escalate • 25%
Tariffs imposed • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other • 25%
Trade agreements reached • 25%
Trade tensions escalate • 25%
Trade war • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
