Market
What will be the impact on U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade relations by June 30, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Deterioration • 25%
Improvement • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Other • 25%
Trade agreements or official statements from the involved countries
Story
Trump Considers 10% Tariff on China Imports Starting Feb. 1 Amid Fentanyl Crisis
Jan 21, 2025, 11:54 PM
President Donald Trump announced that his administration is considering imposing a 10% tariff on goods imported from China, effective as early as Feb. 1. This decision is framed as a response to China's role in the U.S. fentanyl crisis, with Trump alleging that China is sending fentanyl to Mexico and Canada, which then enters the U.S. Trump also mentioned that his team is discussing a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada, to be implemented on the same date, due to concerns over immigration and fentanyl trafficking. During his first term, Trump had already imposed significant tariffs on China, and he criticized the European Union and other countries for having troubling trade imbalances with the U.S.
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Other outcomes • 25%
Tariffs not imposed, negotiations successful • 25%
US imposes tariffs, Canada retaliates • 25%
US imposes tariffs, no retaliation • 25%
No Significant Change • 25%
Improved Cooperation • 25%
Strained Relations • 25%
Other • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Trade agreement revised • 25%
Tariffs negotiated • 25%
Tariffs implemented • 25%
Worsened • 25%
Improved • 25%
Unchanged • 25%
New trade agreement • 25%
Trade war • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
New trade agreement • 25%
Tariffs imposed • 25%
Tariffs avoided through negotiation • 25%
Ongoing negotiations • 25%
No significant developments • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Significant trade conflict • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Trade war • 25%
Mutual agreement reached • 25%
U.S. imposes tariff • 25%
Canada agrees to new terms • 25%
Dispute unresolved • 25%
New trade agreement • 25%
Increased tariffs • 25%
Significant tariff reductions • 25%
No major changes • 25%
No change • 25%
Increase • 25%
Decrease • 25%
Other • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
No changes • 25%
Major restructuring • 25%
Minor adjustments • 25%