Market
What will be the impact of US-Turkey collaboration on ISIS in Syria by the end of 2025?
2
Antony Blinken•Turkish•Tayyip Erdoğan•Hakan Fidan•Ankara•Syria•Gaza•ISIS•PKK•Blinken•US•Turkey•Fidan•Hamas
Resolution / Starting Odds
Significant reduction in ISIS activity • 25%
Moderate reduction in ISIS activity • 25%
No significant change in ISIS activity • 25%
Increase in ISIS activity • 25%
Reports from international security agencies or recognized think tanks such as the United Nations or the International Crisis Group
Story
Blinken Urges Turkey to Help Achieve Gaza Cease-Fire, Discusses Syria's Future with Erdoğan and Fidan
Dec 13, 2024, 08:28 AM
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan in Ankara to discuss regional issues, including Syria and Gaza. The officials focused on efforts to stabilize Syria and combat terrorism, particularly the threats posed by ISIS and the PKK. Blinken noted that there is broad agreement between the US and Turkey on the desired future for Syria, emphasizing the need for a government that promotes stability, dismantles chemical weapons, and does not threaten its neighbors. Fidan stated that Turkey's priorities are to ensure stability in Syria and prevent terrorist organizations like ISIS and the PKK from gaining a foothold in the region. They discussed the possible roles of Turkey and the US in Syria's future. Blinken urged Turkey to use its influence on Hamas to achieve a cease-fire in Gaza and expressed that there are encouraging signs that a cease-fire is possible. Both sides agreed on the urgency of achieving a cease-fire. Blinken highlighted the importance of continued US-Turkish collaboration to suppress ISIS in Syria.
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No significant progress • 25%
Deterioration of situation • 25%
Successful stabilization • 25%
Partial stabilization • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Turkey withdraws from Syrian affairs • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Turkey gains significant influence in Syria • 25%
Status quo remains • 25%
No significant cooperation • 25%
Joint military operations • 25%
Humanitarian aid initiatives • 25%
Diplomatic engagements • 25%
Operation leads to significant international backlash • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Successful operation with Turkish control • 25%
Stalemate with no significant gains • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Humanitarian aid • 25%
Counterterrorism • 25%
Political stabilization • 25%
Economic reconstruction • 25%
Increased Presence • 25%
Some Eliminated • 25%
All Eliminated • 25%
None Eliminated • 25%
No significant change • 25%
YPG strengthens • 25%
Partial elimination • 25%
YPG fully eliminated • 25%
Turkey withdraws influence from Syria • 25%
Continued military presence without government change • 25%
Turkey establishes a friendly government in Syria • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Other • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
No success • 25%
Complete success • 25%
Partial success • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%