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What will be the control status of Syrian territory by May 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Rebels gain significant control • 25%
Government regains control • 25%
Stalemate continues • 25%
International intervention • 25%
Reports from credible news agencies and international observers
Story
Russia Has No Plan to Save Assad; Embassy Advises Citizens to Leave
Dec 6, 2024, 02:55 PM
According to multiple reports citing sources close to the Kremlin, including Bloomberg, Russia currently does not have a plan to assist Syrian President Bashar al-Assad amid recent developments in Syria. The reports indicate that Russia does not foresee a plan emerging as long as the Syrian army continues to abandon its positions. Despite this, Russia has reportedly used warplanes to strike rebel positions during their rapid advance, although there has been no clear pronouncement of support for the Syrian government. Some sources mention that the Russian embassy in Damascus has advised Russian citizens to leave the country. Russia is said to be evaluating the situation in Syria, and further discussions on the extent of aid needed may occur after the assessment is complete.
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SDF retains control • 25%
Türkiye gains control • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Joint control established • 25%
Controlled by new Syrian government • 25%
Controlled by rebel groups • 25%
Controlled by foreign powers • 25%
Mixed control • 25%
Under Syrian government control • 25%
Remains under current control • 25%
Under IDF control • 25%
Under other forces' control • 25%
Stalemate with no change • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Turkish-backed forces gain control • 25%
SDF gains control • 25%
Syrian government • 25%
Other rebel groups • 25%
Coalition forces • 25%
HTS • 25%
Syrian Opposition • 25%
Kurdish Groups • 25%
Other • 25%
Syrian Government • 25%
Controlled by Syrian government • 25%
Other/Unclear control • 25%
Controlled by rebel groups • 25%
Controlled by Kurdish forces • 25%
Government controls all major cities • 25%
Rebels control majority of major cities • 25%
No clear control in major cities • 25%
Control is evenly split • 25%
Government retains partial control • 25%
Government control unchanged • 25%
Government loses control • 25%
Government regains full control • 25%
Loss of major cities • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Decreased territorial control • 25%
Increased territorial control • 25%
Increased opposition control • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased government control • 25%
Other groups gain control • 25%
Turkey gains control • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
PKK/YPG gains control • 25%