Market
What will be the change in regional alliances due to Israeli-Iranian tensions by December 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
New alliances formed • 25%
Existing alliances strengthened • 25%
Alliances weakened • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Official announcements from involved countries and credible international media reports
Story
Israel Threatens to Shoot Down Two Iranian Flights Over Weapons Concerns, Forces Return to Iran
Dec 7, 2024, 09:35 PM
In recent days, two flights operated by a private Iranian airline were forced to turn back while en route to Damascus after Israel issued warnings that it would shoot them down if they entered Syrian airspace. The New York Times reported that Israel expressed concerns that the flights were transferring weapons and possibly carrying troops to support the Syrian government. This incident complicates Iran's ability to mobilize forces to assist President Bashar al-Assad amid ongoing tensions in the region.
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No significant change • 25%
Strengthened Israel-US ties • 25%
Strengthened Russia-Syria ties • 25%
New alliances formed • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Military conflict • 25%
No significant change • 25%
New alliances formed • 25%
Weakened alliances • 25%
Strengthened alliances • 25%
Alliances weaken significantly • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Current alliances strengthen • 25%
New alliance forms • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Formal diplomatic actions • 25%
Status quo remains • 25%
Increased stability in the region • 25%
Increased tensions and conflicts • 25%
Emergence of new alliances • 25%
No change • 25%
Formal diplomatic talks initiated • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Closer ties with China • 25%
Closer ties with Russia • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Closer ties with Western countries • 25%
Change in Iranian leadership • 25%
Change in both countries' leadership • 25%
No change in leadership • 25%
Change in Israeli leadership • 25%
Increased support for Israel • 25%
Increased support for Iran • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
New alliance against Israel • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Strengthened alliances • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Weakened alliances • 25%
Power balance remains stable • 25%
Iran gains power • 25%
Iran loses power • 25%
Other regional power shifts • 25%