Market
How will Israel-Iran relations change by the end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Improved relations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Military conflict • 25%
Official statements from Israeli or Iranian governments or credible media reports
Story
Asif William Rahman, Former CIA Analyst, Pleads Guilty to Leaking Israeli Strike Plans on Iran, Faces Up to 20 Years
Jan 17, 2025, 08:03 PM
Asif William Rahman, a 34-year-old former CIA analyst who worked for the agency since 2016 and held a top-secret security clearance, has pleaded guilty to leaking classified documents detailing Israel's military preparations for a retaliatory strike against Iran. Rahman was arrested by the FBI in Cambodia in November. He admitted to accessing and printing two top-secret documents on October 17, 2024, which he then photographed and transmitted to individuals not authorized to receive them. The leaked documents, which appeared on social media platforms, led to a delay in Israel's planned attack on Iran. Rahman faces up to 20 years in prison, with sentencing scheduled for May 15, 2025.
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Formal diplomatic talks initiated • 25%
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Iran develops nuclear weapon • 25%
Enhance nuclear energy use • 25%
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Iran isolated • 25%
Decreased influence • 25%
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