Market
How will Iran-Israel relations change following the assassination by December 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased tensions • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Formal diplomatic actions • 25%
Official diplomatic announcements or credible news reports
Story
Israeli Channel 12 Details Mossad's Assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran Amid Hamas Denial
Dec 29, 2024, 09:32 AM
Israeli Channel 12 reported new details about the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, the former head of Hamas's political bureau, in Tehran. The report claims that Haniyeh was killed by a bomb placed in his room at an Iranian guesthouse, specifically designed to target only him. The assassination occurred just before the inauguration ceremony of Iran's new President Masoud Pezeshkian, which Haniyeh had attended during his Tehran visit. The operation was described as one of the most complex and sensitive in the history of intelligence, with Mossad meticulously planning the attack after months of surveillance. Haniyeh was reportedly a key figure in planning attacks against Israel. However, Hamas has denied these claims, asserting that Haniyeh was assassinated using a guided missile containing 7.5 kg of explosives targeting his mobile phone, not a bomb in his room. The group emphasized that the attack was a violation of Iran's sovereignty and a multi-faceted crime.
View original story
Similar markets
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Military conflict • 25%
No change • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Formal diplomatic talks initiated • 25%
Relations improved • 25%
Relations unchanged • 25%
New diplomatic agreements • 25%
Relations severed • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No change in leadership • 25%
Change in Israeli leadership • 25%
Change in Iranian leadership • 25%
Change in both countries' leadership • 25%
Israel conducts airstrikes on Iran • 25%
Both countries engage in conflict • 25%
No military action occurs • 25%
Iran retaliates against Israel • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Alliances weakened • 25%
Existing alliances strengthened • 25%
New alliances formed • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Severed diplomatic ties • 25%
No change • 25%
Worsened relations • 25%
Military retaliation • 25%
Diplomatic measures • 25%
Increased military readiness • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Successful strikes with no retaliation • 25%
No strikes conducted • 25%
Unsuccessful strikes • 25%
Successful strikes with Iranian retaliation • 25%