Market
Will Assad sever ties with Iran and Hezbollah by mid-2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official announcements from the Syrian government or credible news outlets confirming the severance of ties
Story
Assad Seeks U.S. Support, Offers to Cut Ties with Iran, Hezbollah Amid Opposition Pressure
Dec 7, 2024, 07:22 PM
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has reportedly reached out to the United States through back-channels in the United Arab Emirates, offering to sever all ties with Iran and Hezbollah. This proposal comes with the condition that the U.S. and Western countries assist Assad in remaining in power or ensuring his safe exit. Bloomberg reports, citing informed sources, that Assad is seeking an agreement that would either allow him to retain control over the remaining areas under his authority or secure his safe exile if necessary. The offer was made amidst increasing pressure from opposition forces entering Damascus, signaling Assad's desperation to negotiate a deal.
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Strengthen ties • 25%
Maintain current ties • 25%
Reduce ties significantly • 25%
Cut ties completely • 25%
Assad does not cut ties and steps down • 25%
Assad cuts ties and remains in power • 25%
Assad cuts ties and steps down • 25%
Assad does not cut ties and remains in power • 25%
Maintain current alliances • 25%
Alliances with other regional powers • 25%
New alliances with Kurdish groups • 25%
Other • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Oppose Hezbollah • 25%
No official policy • 25%
Support Hezbollah • 25%
Neutral stance • 25%
Closer ties with Russia • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Closer ties with Western countries • 25%
Closer ties with China • 25%
Assad Overthrown • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Rebel Gains • 25%
Complete Rebel Defeat • 25%