Market
How will TikTok's U.S. user base change by February 28, 2025, following the Supreme Court ruling?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Decrease by over 50% • 25%
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Reports from TikTok and major news outlets on user statistics
Story
Supreme Court to Rule on TikTok Ban by Jan. 19 Amid National Security Debate
Jan 5, 2025, 05:19 AM
The U.S. Supreme Court is set to hear arguments on January 10 regarding a law that could lead to a nationwide ban on TikTok unless its Chinese parent company, ByteDance, divests its ownership. The U.S. government cites national security concerns as the primary reason for the potential ban, while TikTok and its allies argue that such a move violates the First Amendment. If the ban proceeds, TikTok estimates that small businesses could lose over $1 billion in revenue within a month, and creators could face nearly $300 million in lost earnings. With 170 million U.S. users, TikTok has been a vital tool for small businesses and creators, providing unique monetization opportunities and exposure through its algorithm. A Goldman Sachs report estimates the creator economy, partly fueled by TikTok, could be worth $480 billion by 2027. President-elect Donald Trump has requested a delay in the ban, which is set to take effect by January 19. The decision could disrupt the broader digital landscape, with rivals like Instagram Reels and YouTube Shorts poised to benefit. However, creators and small businesses fear losing a critical platform for growth and engagement. If the ban is enforced, app stores and internet providers would be required to block TikTok, rendering the app unusable over time.
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Similar markets
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