Market
What changes will occur in U.S. nuclear policy by December 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Increase in nuclear arsenal • 25%
Resumption of testing • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Reduction in nuclear arsenal • 25%
Official U.S. government policy documents or credible news reports
Story
Russia's Sergei Ryabkov Warns of Nuclear Testing Measures Amid Trump's 'Extremely Hostile' Posture
Dec 27, 2024, 08:30 AM
Russia is considering a range of possible measures regarding nuclear testing, as stated by Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov. This statement comes amid concerns over the incoming administration of Donald Trump, which Moscow perceives as having a radical stance on nuclear policy. Ryabkov indicated that Russia would evaluate its options in response to any potential resumption of nuclear tests by the United States. The warning reflects Moscow's view of an 'extremely complicated international situation' and its criticism of Washington's 'extremely hostile' posture. The comments were reported by various outlets, including Kommersant and other international news agencies.
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Similar markets
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Other policy change • 25%
Increase enrichment levels • 25%
Maintain current levels • 25%
Decrease enrichment levels • 25%
Increase by less than 5% • 25%
Increase by over 10% • 25%
Increase by 5-10% • 25%
No increase • 25%
Program dismantled • 25%
Reduced capabilities • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increased nuclear capabilities • 25%
Complete suspension of nuclear program • 25%
Continuation with increased transparency • 25%
No change in current policy • 25%
Acceleration of nuclear development • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
No major policy change • 25%
Preemptive strikes • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
Maintain current stance • 25%
Pursue nuclear weapons • 25%
Seek diplomatic resolution • 25%
Enhance nuclear energy use • 25%
Full compliance with international demands • 25%
Decrease in enrichment activities • 25%
Increase in enrichment activities • 25%
No significant change • 25%
New Sanctions • 25%
Diplomatic Talks • 25%
Airstrikes • 25%
No Action • 25%
Seek international alliances • 25%
Maintain current stance • 25%
Increase nuclear development • 25%
Strengthen conventional forces • 25%