Market
What change will occur in Russian military strategy due to Ukraine's missile shortage by June 30, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Increase in offensive operations • 25%
Maintain current strategy • 25%
Decrease in military operations • 25%
Other strategic changes • 25%
Reports from military analysts and Russian military communications
Story
Ukraine Faces Critical Shortage of ATACMS Missiles, Only 50 Left from 500 Supplied; No Likelihood of Getting More
Dec 27, 2024, 04:15 PM
Ukraine's military is facing a critical shortage of ATACMS missiles, with reports indicating that only about 50 remain from the 500 supplied by the United States. This significant reduction follows a period of intensive use, as Ukraine had initially launched a flurry of strikes against Russian military targets after receiving authorization from President Biden. U.S. officials have expressed concerns regarding Ukraine's targeting decisions, suggesting that better choices could have been made. Moreover, there is no likelihood of additional supplies being sent to Ukraine, as U.S. stockpiles are currently allocated for other regions, including the Middle East and Asia. The New York Times reports that this dwindling supply has resulted in a noticeable decrease in Ukraine's missile strikes against Russian forces, raising questions about the effectiveness of the ATACMS in altering the course of the conflict.
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Decrease readiness • 25%
Public threats • 25%
Increase readiness • 25%
No change • 25%
Diplomatic efforts • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Offensive operations • 25%
Increased air defenses • 25%
Defensive Posture • 25%
Diplomatic Efforts • 25%
No Significant Change • 25%
Increased Offensive • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Shift to defensive operations • 25%
Increased air support • 25%
Withdrawal from active combat • 25%
Continued mass infantry assaults • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
New frontlines established • 25%
Decreased military activity • 25%
Increased military activity • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
No change in US support to Ukraine • 25%
US increases military support to Ukraine • 25%
US reduces military support to Ukraine • 25%
Other • 25%
Other response • 25%
Diplomatic protests • 25%
Military escalation • 25%
No significant response • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Economic measures • 25%
Diplomatic actions • 25%
Military escalation • 25%
Cyber attacks • 25%