Market
Will Oreshnik missiles significantly alter Ukraine conflict dynamics by March 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Analyses and reports from defense analysts and military experts in prominent publications
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U.S. Warns of Potential Oreshnik Missile Strike on Ukraine by Russia
Dec 11, 2024, 05:19 PM
U.S. intelligence has warned that Russia may launch another experimental Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile at Ukraine in the coming days. Despite the potential threat, Pentagon spokesperson Sabrina Singh has stated that the missile is not considered a game-changer in the ongoing conflict. The Oreshnik missile was first used last month in a strike on the city of Dnipro, which Moscow claimed was in response to Ukraine using U.S.-supplied ATACMS missiles against a military airfield. The U.S. assessment suggests that Russia's use of this missile is more an attempt at intimidation than a significant shift in the war's dynamics, especially given the limited number of these missiles Russia is believed to possess.
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Similar markets
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No launch • 25%
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Intercepted • 25%
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Offensive operations • 25%
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Diplomatic efforts • 25%
Increased air defenses • 25%
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