Market
How will Russia's nuclear posture change following Ukraine's use of ATACMS by August 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Increase readiness • 25%
No change • 25%
Decrease readiness • 25%
Public threats • 25%
Official statements from the Russian government or verified international reports
Story
Biden Administration Approves ATACMS for Ukraine Amid Rising Tensions with Russia; Pantsir-S1 and Nebo-M Radar Targeted
Jan 2, 2025, 11:05 AM
The Biden administration has approved the use of long-range ATACMS missiles for Ukraine, a move that marks a shift in U.S. policy amid rising tensions with Russia. This decision allows Ukraine to strike deep within Russian territory, potentially undermining Russian command centers and air defenses. The approval comes as Russia has lowered its nuclear threshold, indicating heightened concerns about the escalation of the conflict. Recent military actions by Ukraine have included successful HIMARS strikes on Russian air defense systems, including the Pantsir-S1, valued at approximately $15 million, and the Nebo-M radar station, which is estimated to be worth around $100 million. These developments occur as Ukraine continues its counteroffensive in the Kursk region, while Russia warns against the use of Western weaponry in the ongoing conflict.
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Diplomatic protests • 25%
Other response • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Military escalation • 25%
Other strategic changes • 25%
Increase in offensive operations • 25%
Maintain current strategy • 25%
Decrease in military operations • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Cyber attack • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
Military strike • 25%
Diplomatic measures • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Economic measures • 25%
Diplomatic action • 25%
Missile strike • 25%
Cyber attack • 25%
Significant impact on Russian military • 25%
Minimal impact on Russian military • 25%
No noticeable impact • 25%
Other • 25%
Policy becomes more permissive • 25%
Policy remains unchanged • 25%
Policy becomes more restrictive • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
