Market
How will Ukraine's military strategy change after an Oreshnik strike by March 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased Offensive • 25%
Defensive Posture • 25%
Diplomatic Efforts • 25%
No Significant Change • 25%
Statements from Ukrainian military leadership and defense analysts
Story
U.S. Warns of Potential Oreshnik Missile Strike on Ukraine by Russia
Dec 11, 2024, 05:19 PM
U.S. intelligence has warned that Russia may launch another experimental Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile at Ukraine in the coming days. Despite the potential threat, Pentagon spokesperson Sabrina Singh has stated that the missile is not considered a game-changer in the ongoing conflict. The Oreshnik missile was first used last month in a strike on the city of Dnipro, which Moscow claimed was in response to Ukraine using U.S.-supplied ATACMS missiles against a military airfield. The U.S. assessment suggests that Russia's use of this missile is more an attempt at intimidation than a significant shift in the war's dynamics, especially given the limited number of these missiles Russia is believed to possess.
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Increased air defenses • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Diplomatic efforts • 25%
Offensive operations • 25%
Strengthened alliances with Western countries • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Seeking diplomatic resolutions • 25%
Increased military spending • 25%
Increased reliance on drone warfare • 25%
Increased frequency of airstrikes on Russian targets • 25%
Focus on defensive operations within Ukraine • 25%
No significant change in operations • 25%
No official response • 25%
Request for international support • 25%
Diplomatic protest • 25%
Military retaliation • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increased military operations • 25%
Diplomatic initiatives • 25%
Request for international sanctions • 25%
Improved air defense systems • 25%
International military support • 25%
Cyber defense measures • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Maintain current strategy • 25%
Increase in offensive operations • 25%
Other strategic changes • 25%
Decrease in military operations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Decreased military effectiveness • 25%
Increased effectiveness with alternative strategies • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Drones • 25%
Artillery • 25%
Other • 25%
Storm Shadow Missiles • 25%
Other • 25%
Government buildings • 25%
Military bases • 25%
Energy infrastructure • 25%
