Market
What action will the U.S. government take based on CIA's COVID-19 lab leak theory by end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Policy Change • 25%
Sanctions • 25%
Diplomatic Action • 25%
No Action • 25%
Official U.S. government announcements or policy documents
Story
CIA, Under New Director Ratcliffe, Favors Lab Leak Theory for COVID-19 Origin
Jan 25, 2025, 08:28 PM
The CIA has shifted its stance and now favors the theory that COVID-19 likely originated from a lab leak in Wuhan, China. This new assessment, released by the CIA's new Director John Ratcliffe, indicates that analysts now consider a research-related origin more probable than a natural one, although with low confidence due to limited intelligence. Officials noted that there is no new intelligence behind the agency's shift; rather, it is based on a reassessment of existing evidence. Ratcliffe, who wants the agency to 'get off the sidelines' in the debate, declassified and released the decision upon his appointment. The CIA had previously maintained that there was insufficient information to determine the origins of the pandemic.
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No specific actions • 25%
Increased funding for pandemic research • 25%
Other actions • 25%
Sanctions against China • 25%
No action taken • 25%
Sanctions against China • 25%
Diplomatic measures • 25%
Other actions • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Confirmed natural origin • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
No official conclusion • 25%
Confirmed lab leak • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
New regulations on research funding • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Public inquiry or hearings • 25%
Diplomatic actions against China • 25%
No further action • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
International investigation support • 25%
Diplomatic protest • 25%
No significant international reaction • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
International investigation is launched • 25%
China denies and counters the assessment • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
Natural origin confirmed • 25%
Lab leak confirmed • 25%
No report issued • 25%
