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What will be the outcome of CIA investigation into COVID-19 origins by end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Lab leak confirmed • 25%
Natural origin confirmed • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
No report issued • 25%
Official CIA report or statement
Story
CIA Director John Ratcliffe to Investigate COVID Origins from Wuhan Institute of Virology, Highlighting China's Geopolitical Threat as 'Day-One Thing'
Jan 24, 2025, 02:59 PM
CIA Director John Ratcliffe has announced a comprehensive review of the agency's handling of the origins of COVID-19, emphasizing his commitment to investigate the possibility of a lab leak from the Wuhan Institute of Virology. Ratcliffe described this inquiry as a 'day-one thing' for his leadership. He also expressed concern that the U.S. Intelligence Community has been slow to recognize China as the primary geopolitical threat, attributing this to an outdated Cold War mindset. Ratcliffe's statements come amid growing scrutiny over the origins of the pandemic and the role of Chinese authorities.
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Natural origin confirmed • 25%
Lab leak theory confirmed • 25%
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Natural Origin Confirmed • 25%
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No • 50%
Confirmed natural origin • 25%
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No official conclusion • 25%
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No • 50%
Yes • 50%
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International investigation is launched • 25%
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Further investigation recommended • 25%
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Lab origin • 33%
Natural origin • 33%