Market
How will major intelligence agencies respond to CIA's COVID-19 origin stance by end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Endorsed • 25%
Challenged • 25%
Modified • 25%
No Change • 25%
Official statements or reports from major intelligence agencies like MI6, Mossad, FSB, etc.
Story
CIA, Under New Director Ratcliffe, Favors Lab Leak Theory for COVID-19 Origin
Jan 25, 2025, 08:28 PM
The CIA has shifted its stance and now favors the theory that COVID-19 likely originated from a lab leak in Wuhan, China. This new assessment, released by the CIA's new Director John Ratcliffe, indicates that analysts now consider a research-related origin more probable than a natural one, although with low confidence due to limited intelligence. Officials noted that there is no new intelligence behind the agency's shift; rather, it is based on a reassessment of existing evidence. Ratcliffe, who wants the agency to 'get off the sidelines' in the debate, declassified and released the decision upon his appointment. The CIA had previously maintained that there was insufficient information to determine the origins of the pandemic.
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Natural Origins • 25%
Other • 25%
Lab Leak • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
International investigation is launched • 25%
No significant international reaction • 25%
China denies and counters the assessment • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Natural origin confirmed • 25%
Lab leak theory confirmed • 25%
No public conclusion • 25%
Indeterminate findings • 25%
Natural origin • 33%
Lab origin • 33%
Inconclusive • 34%
Sanctions against China • 25%
Diplomatic measures • 25%
No action taken • 25%
Other actions • 25%
Lab leak confirmed • 25%
No report issued • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
Natural origin confirmed • 25%
Denial and condemnation • 25%
Counter-accusations • 25%
No official response • 25%
Acceptance and cooperation • 25%
