Market
Country primarily held responsible by Finland for Estlink 2 cable incident by June 30, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Russia • 25%
Another country • 25%
No country held responsible • 25%
Other • 25%
Official Finnish government statements or reports
Story
Finland Detains Russian Tanker Eagle S in Undersea Cable Sabotage Investigation
Dec 26, 2024, 03:18 PM
Finland is investigating an undersea power cable outage on the Estlink 2 interconnector connecting Finland and Estonia after a sudden drop in capacity from 1,016 MW to 358 MW occurred at 10:26 AM GMT on December 25, 2024. Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo announced that authorities are looking into the cause of the disruption, with sabotage not being ruled out. Finnish police are investigating whether a foreign ship was involved in damaging the cable. On December 26, Finnish authorities boarded and detained the oil tanker Eagle S, which is linked to Russia's 'shadow fleet', on suspicion of causing the damage. The National Bureau of Investigation has opened a probe for 'aggravated sabotage' into the incident. Four telecommunication cables between Finland and Estonia are also out of service. The incident raises concerns over critical infrastructure security in the Baltic Sea.
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Unknown/Other • 25%
No Country Blamed • 25%
Another Country • 25%
Russia • 25%
State actor • 25%
Accidental cause • 25%
Unknown • 25%
Non-state actor • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Another vessel • 25%
No entity held accountable • 25%
Eagle S owner • 25%
Eagle S crew • 25%
No external assistance • 25%
Other EU country • 25%
Estonia • 25%
Non-EU country • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Unknown/Other • 25%
Non-State Actor • 25%
State Actor • 25%
Technical Fault • 25%
Xin Xin Tian • 25%
No vessel identified • 25%
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Eagle S • 25%
United States • 25%
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France • 25%
Germany • 25%
No suspect identified • 25%
Other • 25%
Another foreign vessel • 25%
Eagle S tanker crew • 25%
Sabotage confirmed • 25%
No conclusive cause • 25%
Vessel involvement confirmed • 25%
Technical fault confirmed • 25%