Market
Outcome of U.S.-China trade negotiations on proposed tariff by Apr 30, 2025
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Tariff implemented • 25%
Tariff delayed • 25%
Tariff canceled • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official announcements from U.S. and Chinese governments
Story
Trump Weighs 10% Tariff on China Starting Feb. 1 Over Fentanyl Exports to Mexico, Canada
Jan 22, 2025, 02:01 AM
President Donald Trump announced his administration is considering imposing a 10% tariff on China, potentially effective February 1, citing China's role in fentanyl exports to Mexico and Canada. “We're talking about a tariff of 10% on China based on the fact that they're sending fentanyl to Mexico and Canada,” Trump said. He also mentioned that he had discussed the issue with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
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Status quo maintained • 25%
Trade tensions escalate • 25%
New trade agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Trade agreement reached • 25%
Tariffs reduced • 25%
No significant change • 25%
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Status quo maintained • 25%
Escalation of trade tensions • 25%
New trade agreement • 25%
Increased tariffs • 25%
Other • 25%
Trade agreements reached • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Trade tensions escalate • 25%
Tariffs negotiated to a lower rate • 25%
Tariffs indefinitely postponed • 25%
Tariffs not implemented • 25%
Tariffs implemented • 25%
New trade agreement • 25%
Increased tariffs • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Tariff Delayed • 25%
10% Tariff Imposed • 25%
Tariff Canceled • 25%
Other Action Taken • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
New trade agreement • 25%
Temporary tariff suspension • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Tariffs imposed • 25%
Tariffs avoided with agreement • 25%