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    Will the U.S. impose a 10% tariff on China by Feb 1, 2025?

    5
    Donald Trump•China•Mexico•Canada•Trump•Chinese•Xi Jinping
    Resolution / Starting Odds

    Yes • 50%

    No • 50%

    Official announcement from the White House or U.S. Trade Representative

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    Trump Weighs 10% Tariff on China Starting Feb. 1 Over Fentanyl Exports to Mexico, Canada

    Trump Weighs 10% Tariff on China Starting Feb. 1 Over Fentanyl Exports to Mexico, Canada

    Jan 22, 2025, 02:01 AM

    President Donald Trump announced his administration is considering imposing a 10% tariff on China, potentially effective February 1, citing China's role in fentanyl exports to Mexico and Canada. “We're talking about a tariff of 10% on China based on the fact that they're sending fentanyl to Mexico and Canada,” Trump said. He also mentioned that he had discussed the issue with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

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    Will the U.S. impose a 10% tariff on China imports by February 1, 2025?

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    Will the U.S. impose a 10% tariff on Chinese imports by February 1, 2025?

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    No • 50%

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    Will China announce retaliatory measures against U.S. tariffs by Mar 31, 2025?

    Will China announce retaliatory measures against U.S. tariffs by Mar 31, 2025?

    No • 50%

    Yes • 50%

    Will fentanyl exports from China to Mexico and Canada decrease by 20% by Jul 31, 2025?

    Will fentanyl exports from China to Mexico and Canada decrease by 20% by Jul 31, 2025?

    No • 50%

    Yes • 50%

    Change in U.S. trade deficit with China by end of Q2 2025

    Change in U.S. trade deficit with China by end of Q2 2025

    No change in trade deficit • 25%

    Trade deficit increases • 25%

    Other outcome • 25%

    Trade deficit decreases • 25%

    Impact of U.S. tariff on China's GDP growth rate in 2025

    Impact of U.S. tariff on China's GDP growth rate in 2025

    GDP growth increases • 25%

    No change in GDP growth • 25%

    GDP growth decreases by >1% • 25%

    GDP growth decreases by <=1% • 25%