Market
Outcome of Ukraine's territorial dispute with Russia by end of 2025
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Ukraine regains all territories • 25%
Ukraine regains some territories • 25%
No change in territorial control • 25%
Russia gains more territory • 25%
International news agencies, official statements from Ukraine, Russia, and international bodies
Story
U.S. Government Clarifies No Commitment to Help Ukraine Reclaim Occupied Territories, Says Biden Administration Officials
Jan 19, 2025, 03:06 PM
Recent reports indicate that the U.S. government, under President Joe Biden, has not committed to assisting Ukraine in reclaiming territories occupied by Russia. Instead, the administration's focus has been on ensuring Ukraine's survival as a sovereign, democratic state capable of integrating with the West. This stance was reflected in the vague phrasing used by the White House, which emphasized support for Ukraine 'for as long as it takes.' Officials have clarified that there was no promise made to help Ukraine recover all the land lost to Russia, particularly the extensive areas in eastern Ukraine and the Crimean Peninsula, which were taken during the initial invasion in 2014.
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Ukraine regains territories • 25%
Stalemate continues • 25%
Peace agreement reached • 25%
Russia gains significant control • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Peace agreement with security guarantees • 25%
Peace agreement without security guarantees • 25%
Other • 25%
Peace agreement • 25%
Ceasefire • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Ukraine found responsible • 25%
No conclusive outcome • 25%
Ongoing investigation • 25%
Ukraine cleared of responsibility • 25%
Russia gains territorial advantage • 25%
Peace agreement signed • 25%
Ukraine gains territorial advantage • 25%
Conflict continues with no resolution • 25%
Ceasefire • 25%
Other • 25%
Peace treaty • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Peace treaty signed • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Peace treaty signed • 25%
Other • 25%
Status quo remains • 25%
Russia retains all current territories • 25%
Territorial swaps occur • 25%
Ukraine regains some territories • 25%
Ceasefire • 25%
Ongoing conflict • 25%
Peace treaty • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire in place • 25%
Conflict ongoing • 25%
Escalated to larger conflict • 25%
War has ended • 25%