Market
What will be the next major U.S. diplomatic action in the Middle East peace process by the end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
New peace talks initiated • 25%
Military aid to Israel • 25%
Humanitarian aid to Gaza • 25%
Other diplomatic actions • 25%
Official announcements from the U.S. Department of State or international news agencies
Story
Blinken Credits Erdoğan for Hamas's Return to Cease-Fire Negotiations Following January 15 Agreement
Jan 16, 2025, 07:01 PM
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken confirmed that President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan played a crucial role in facilitating Hamas's return to cease-fire negotiations. In a final news conference, Blinken stated that the U.S. had requested Erdoğan's assistance to leverage his influence in bringing Hamas back to the negotiation table. Following this request, Hamas resumed discussions aimed at finalizing a Gaza cease-fire agreement. Blinken highlighted that the collaboration with Erdoğan was part of broader efforts involving other actors to achieve a resolution. The cease-fire agreement between Israel and Hamas was reached on January 15, 2025.
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Reduces involvement • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Introduces new initiatives • 25%
Continues current strategy • 25%
New peace talks initiated • 25%
Humanitarian aid to Gaza • 25%
Military support to Israel • 25%
Sanctions on Gaza entities • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Ceasefire achieved • 25%
Peace agreement signed • 25%
Proposed by UN • 25%
Proposed by US • 25%
Proposed by EU • 25%
No major initiative proposed • 25%
Military escalation • 25%
Humanitarian aid agreement • 25%
No significant change • 25%
New peace talks • 25%
Weakened relations • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Strengthened relations • 25%
Military intervention • 25%
No major action • 25%
Sanctions • 25%
Diplomatic initiative • 25%
Other • 25%
Partial agreement • 25%
Successful peace agreement • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Hostage release • 25%
Other diplomatic goals • 25%
Both ceasefire and hostage release • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Direct negotiator • 25%
Mediator • 25%
No role • 25%
Observer • 25%