Market
Outcome of RAF drone incursions investigation by December 31, 2025?
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United Kingdom•RAF Lakenheath•Mildenhall•East Anglia•British Special Forces•22 Special Air Service•Russia•China
Resolution / Starting Odds
State actor involvement confirmed • 25%
Non-state actor involvement confirmed • 25%
No conclusive evidence found • 25%
Investigation ongoing • 25%
Final report or statement from the investigating authorities
Story
UK and US Investigate Drone Incursions Over RAF Lakenheath, Mildenhall; State Actor Suspected
Dec 2, 2024, 07:53 PM
A series of unauthorized drone incursions have been reported over military bases in the United Kingdom, particularly at RAF Lakenheath and Mildenhall in East Anglia, both utilized by the U.S. Air Force. The incidents, ongoing for more than a week, have raised significant security concerns, prompting responses from both the U.K. Ministry of Defence and U.S. military officials. British Special Forces, including the 22 Special Air Service and Royal Navy’s Special Boat Service, have been deployed to address the issue. U.S. Air Force fighter jets and military intelligence-surveillance aircraft have also been involved in monitoring the situation, with air-to-air refueling operations conducted during the search. Defense sources suspect a state actor, potentially Russia or China, to be behind the incursions. Officials have confirmed that there have been no operational or safety impacts to troops on the ground so far. A criminal probe has been launched to investigate the incidents.
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Other • 25%
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Classified as a threat • 25%
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Unidentified, No Further Action • 25%
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