Market
What will be the outcome of the investigation into drone sightings over German industrial sites by December 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Espionage • 25%
Commercial • 25%
Recreational • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
Official findings from German authorities or major news outlets
Story
Unidentified Drones Over U.S. Ramstein Air Base and German Industrial Sites Prompt Investigation
Dec 13, 2024, 11:19 AM
Unidentified drones have been sighted over the U.S. Ramstein Air Base in Germany and other sensitive industrial locations, including Rheinmetall and BASF, in recent weeks, according to reports by Spiegel and other news outlets. The German authorities are investigating these sightings, with suspicions that the drones might be Russian reconnaissance drones. The Pentagon has also dismissed claims of an Iranian 'mothership' off the U.S. East Coast, clarifying that there is no evidence linking the drone activity to any foreign entity or adversary.
View original story
Similar markets
Russian origin confirmed • 25%
Origin remains unidentified • 25%
No official conclusion • 25%
Origin confirmed but not Russian • 25%
Non-espionage related explanation • 25%
Inconclusive findings • 25%
Russian espionage confirmed • 25%
Other foreign espionage confirmed • 25%
Technical Malfunction • 25%
Other • 25%
Foreign State Actor • 25%
Private Entity • 25%
Unidentified • 25%
Unrelated civilian activity • 25%
Espionage confirmed • 25%
Other • 25%
Other • 25%
No Threat Identified • 25%
Technological Malfunction • 25%
National Security Threat • 25%
No conclusive findings • 25%
Foreign government involvement • 25%
Domestic group or individual • 25%
Other • 25%
Identified as hobbyists • 25%
Classified as a threat • 25%
No conclusive findings • 25%
Linked to organized group • 25%
Identified as foreign entity • 25%
Identified as domestic entity • 25%
Identified as private individuals • 25%
Remains unidentified • 25%
Identified as domestic • 25%
Identified as foreign • 25%
Unknown origin • 25%
Other • 25%
Unknown origin • 25%
Deemed as non-threatening • 25%
Identified as foreign origin • 25%
Identified as domestic origin • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Closed without resolution • 25%
Ongoing investigation • 25%
Closed with resolution • 25%
Increased military security • 25%
Other actions • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Diplomatic action against Russia • 25%