Market
Outcome of investigation into radar targeting incident by May 31, 2025?
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NATO•Baltic Sea•Russian•French•Sebastien Lecornu•Baltic Sentry operation•Russia•Brittany•Sweden•Baltic
Resolution / Starting Odds
Confirmed Russian intent to target • 25%
Accidental targeting by Russia • 25%
Inconclusive findings • 25%
No investigation conducted • 25%
Reports from NATO or involved national defense agencies
Story
French Navy Aircraft Targeted by Russian S-400 Radar in NATO Mission Over Baltic Sea
Jan 17, 2025, 01:59 PM
A French Navy Atlantique 2 maritime patrol aircraft, engaged in a NATO surveillance mission over the Baltic Sea, was targeted by Russian forces. The incident occurred overnight from Wednesday to Thursday, when the aircraft was illuminated by the fire-control radar of a Russian S-400 ground-to-air defense system. French Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu condemned the action as an 'aggressive' and 'unacceptable' act of intimidation. The aircraft was part of NATO's Baltic Sentry operation, which aims to protect critical underwater infrastructure following recent damages to undersea cables, suspected to be sabotage by Russia. The French aircraft, which had taken off from Brittany, spent nearly five hours off the coast of Sweden and the Baltic countries, monitoring around 200 ships, mostly civilian, without detecting any suspicious vessels.
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Non-state actor involvement confirmed • 25%
State actor involvement confirmed • 25%
Investigation ongoing • 25%
No conclusive evidence found • 25%
Domestic group or individual • 25%
No conclusive findings • 25%
Foreign government involvement • 25%
Other • 25%
Case unresolved • 25%
Suspects acquitted • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Suspects convicted • 25%
Mixed target • 25%
Confirmed military target • 25%
Confirmed civilian target • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
Training improvements suggested • 25%
Other • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Protocol change recommended • 25%
No conclusive findings • 25%
Identified and prosecuted individuals • 25%
Increased security measures • 25%
Policy recommendations • 25%
Russia found responsible • 25%
Technical malfunction • 25%
Pilot error • 25%
Cause remains undetermined • 25%
Houthi missile evaded defense systems • 25%
Investigation inconclusive • 25%
No evidence of missile strike • 25%
Missile intercepted but malfunction reported • 25%
Criminal organization charges • 25%
No charges • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Gang-related charges • 25%
Both technical and human error • 25%
Human error identified • 25%
Technical failure identified • 25%
No clear cause identified • 25%
Not confirmed • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
Confirmed by NATO • 25%
Confirmed by Romania • 25%