Market
What will be the outcome of the investigation into drone activities over NJ and NY military sites by March 31, 2025?
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House Foreign Affairs Committee•Michael McCaul•Texas•New Jersey•New York•China•McCaul•Picatinny Arsenal•Naval Weapons Station Earle•Stewart International Airport•Congress•NASA•Bill Nelson•Biden•Federal•FBI•Department of Homeland Security•White House•John Kirby
Resolution / Starting Odds
No significant threat • 25%
Security threat identified • 25%
Inconclusive results • 25%
Investigation ongoing • 25%
Official reports from the FBI or Department of Homeland Security
Story
Michael McCaul Claims Chinese Spy Drones Over New Jersey, New York Military Sites
Dec 17, 2024, 11:03 PM
House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Michael McCaul of Texas has claimed that unidentified drones spotted over New Jersey and New York are likely 'spy drones' from China. McCaul stated that these drones have been reported near military sites, including Picatinny Arsenal and Naval Weapons Station Earle, and have caused disruptions such as the temporary closure of Stewart International Airport in New York. Speaking after a classified briefing to Congress, McCaul described the drones as potentially adversarial, consistent with China's alleged espionage activities, including purchasing land near military bases. NASA administrator Bill Nelson also noted the drones' presence over military sites. While the Biden administration has suggested many of the drones are commercial or hobbyist in nature, McCaul expressed concern over the lack of definitive answers from the government. Federal agencies, including the FBI and Department of Homeland Security, have downplayed the threat, citing a mix of lawful commercial drones and other benign explanations. However, McCaul emphasized the need for further investigation into the drones' origins and purposes. White House spokesperson John Kirby stated that authorities have not corroborated the reported sightings.
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Similar markets
Investigation inconclusive • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Drones deemed harmless • 25%
Drones pose a security threat • 25%
Identified as foreign surveillance • 25%
Cause remains unidentified • 25%
Identified as hobbyist activity • 25%
Identified as domestic activity • 25%
Unidentified • 25%
Identified as recreational use • 25%
Identified as commercial activity • 25%
Identified as foreign surveillance • 25%
Identified but non-threatening • 25%
Identified as a security threat • 25%
Identified as harmless hobbyist activity • 25%
Unidentified • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Identified as a foreign entity • 25%
Identified as a domestic entity • 25%
Source remains unidentified • 25%
Identified as domestic origin • 25%
Unknown origin • 25%
Deemed as non-threatening • 25%
Identified as foreign origin • 25%
Hoax or False Alarm • 25%
Identified as Security Threat • 25%
Technical Malfunction • 25%
Unresolved • 25%
Identified as foreign operators • 25%
No operators identified • 25%
Other • 25%
Identified as domestic private operators • 25%
Identified as manned aircraft • 25%
Identified as unauthorized drones • 25%
Other • 25%
No conclusive identification • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Source remains unidentified • 25%
Foreign source identified • 25%
Domestic source identified • 25%
Foreign origin • 25%
Domestic origin • 25%
Hoax or misinformation • 25%
Unknown origin • 25%
Drones identified but not neutralized • 25%
Investigation inconclusive • 25%
Drones unidentified • 25%
Drones identified and neutralized • 25%