Market
What will be the outcome of the drone investigation over German military sites by September 30, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Russian espionage confirmed • 25%
Other foreign espionage confirmed • 25%
Non-espionage related explanation • 25%
Inconclusive findings • 25%
Final report or press release from the Bavarian State Criminal Police Office or Munich Public Prosecutor General's Office
Story
Germany Probes 10 Drone Sightings Over Eurofighter Site, Suspects Russian Espionage
Jan 13, 2025, 02:12 PM
German authorities are investigating the sighting of up to 10 drones flying over military facilities in Bavaria, specifically over the Eurofighter production site in Manching and another military base in Neuburg an der Donau. The incidents, which occurred on Sunday evening, are part of a series of drone sightings reported in recent months, including previous occurrences in December. The Bavarian State Criminal Police Office, along with the Munich Public Prosecutor General's Office, is leading the investigation, suspecting possible espionage by Airbus Defence and Space linked to Russia's war in Ukraine. Despite intensive searches, including the use of a police helicopter, the operators of the drones have not been identified. The sites involved are significant for military aviation, with Manching being a key location for Eurofighter development by Airbus in the military security zone.
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No official conclusion • 25%
Origin confirmed but not Russian • 25%
Russian origin confirmed • 25%
Origin remains unidentified • 25%
Foreign State Actor • 25%
Technical Malfunction • 25%
Private Entity • 25%
Other • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
Commercial • 25%
Espionage • 25%
Recreational • 25%
Other • 25%
Espionage confirmed • 25%
Unrelated civilian activity • 25%
Unidentified • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Increased Surveillance • 25%
No Action • 25%
Military Action • 25%
Diplomatic Measures • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Inconclusive results • 25%
No significant threat • 25%
Security threat identified • 25%
Investigation ongoing • 25%
No Threat Identified • 25%
National Security Threat • 25%
Technological Malfunction • 25%
Other • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Inconclusive • 25%
Technical malfunction • 25%
Accidental breach • 25%
Intentional breach • 25%