Market
Outcome of Mexican cartels' terrorist classification by end of 2025?
2
Donald Trump•United States•Joe Biden•Trump•Biden•Mexican•World Health Organization•WHO•Capitol riot•TikTok•America
Resolution / Starting Odds
Reversal of classification • 25%
Continued classification with additional sanctions • 25%
No significant action taken • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Official U.S. government announcements or major news outlets
Story
Trump Revokes 78 Biden Orders, Pardons 1,500 Capitol Rioters, and Withdraws from Paris Agreement and WHO
Jan 21, 2025, 09:00 AM
Donald Trump, upon taking office as the 47th President of the United States, has swiftly moved to dismantle the legacy of his predecessor, Joe Biden, through a series of executive orders. On his first day, Trump revoked nearly 80 of Biden's executive orders, focusing on immigration, environmental policies, and diversity initiatives. He declared a national emergency at the U.S.-Mexico border, allowing for military involvement in border security, and classified Mexican drug cartels and other criminal groups as foreign terrorist organizations. Trump also withdrew the U.S. from the Paris Agreement on climate change and the World Health Organization (WHO), moves that echo his actions during his first term. Additionally, he granted pardons to nearly all individuals convicted in connection with the January 6, 2021, Capitol riot, describing them as 'hostages.' Trump's actions also included ending remote work for federal employees, ordering them back to the office, and suspending the ban on TikTok for 75 days. He promised a 'golden age' for America, aiming to reverse what he described as the country's decline under previous administrations.
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Similar markets
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes, one cartel • 25%
Yes, multiple cartels • 25%
No, none • 25%
Other • 25%
Implemented without changes • 25%
Blocked by courts • 25%
Implemented with modifications • 25%
Rescinded by Trump • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
No, none • 25%
Other • 25%
Yes, all major cartels • 25%
Yes, some major cartels • 25%
No official response • 25%
Increased cooperation with the U.S. • 25%
Diplomatic protest • 25%
Other • 25%
Other • 25%
Jalisco New Generation Cartel • 25%
Gulf Cartel • 25%
Sinaloa Cartel • 25%
Significant joint operations • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
New bilateral agreements • 25%
Increased intelligence sharing • 25%
Worsened relations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
New diplomatic agreement • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Sinaloa Cartel • 25%
Tren de Aragua • 25%
Other • 25%
Jalisco New Generation Cartel • 25%
