Market
Which cartel will be first designated as a terrorist organization by February 28, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Sinaloa Cartel • 25%
Jalisco New Generation Cartel • 25%
Tren de Aragua • 25%
Other • 25%
Official announcements from U.S. government and major news outlets
Story
Trump to Designate Cartels as Terrorist Organizations on Day One, Allowing Sanctions and Military Action
Jan 19, 2025, 11:05 PM
President-elect Donald Trump plans to classify Mexican drug cartels as foreign terrorist organizations through an executive order on his first day in office after his swearing-in at the U.S. Capitol. This designation, reported by Fox News, would allow the U.S. government to impose sanctions and potentially take military action against these groups. Stephen Miller, Trump's policy advisor, has been involved in discussions with Republican members of Congress regarding this action. The initiative aims to address the growing threat posed by cartels such as the Tren de Aragua, which have expanded their operations within the United States.
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Similar markets
Yes, some major cartels • 25%
Yes, all major cartels • 25%
Other • 25%
No, none • 25%
Neither • 25%
Both MS-13 and Tren de Aragua • 25%
Tren de Aragua • 25%
MS-13 • 25%
Yes, multiple cartels • 25%
Yes, one cartel • 25%
Other • 25%
No, none • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
MS-13 • 25%
A Mexican Cartel • 25%
Other • 25%
Tren de Aragua • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Diplomatic protest • 25%
Other • 25%
No official response • 25%
Increased cooperation with the U.S. • 25%