Market
How will TikTok's national security concerns in the U.S. be resolved by December 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Acquisition resolves concerns • 25%
Ban is enacted • 25%
TikTok implements security changes • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Official government announcements or major news outlets
Story
Trump Confirms Microsoft in Talks to Acquire TikTok, Seeks Bidding War Over App
Jan 28, 2025, 03:10 AM
President Donald Trump confirmed that Microsoft is in talks to acquire TikTok's U.S. operations from China's ByteDance Ltd., saying he would like to see a bidding war over the app to get the best deal. Speaking aboard Air Force One, Trump stated he does not want China involved with TikTok, which faces a potential ban in the United States on national security grounds. Reports also indicate that Oracle, along with a group of U.S. investors, is in negotiations to take over TikTok's global operations, with ByteDance potentially retaining a minority stake.
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Unresolved • 25%
Resolved with new ownership • 25%
Resolved with security measures • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Concerns Resolved • 25%
Concerns Unresolved • 25%
Sale to U.S. Entity • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Security concerns resolved • 25%
Ongoing litigation • 25%
TikTok banned • 25%
Security concerns unresolved • 25%
Concerns unresolved • 25%
TikTok banned • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Concerns resolved with new policy • 25%
Ban Enforced • 25%
Security Measures Implemented • 25%
No Changes Made • 25%
Partial Measures • 25%
New concerns arise • 25%
Concerns fully resolved • 25%
Concerns partially resolved • 25%
Concerns remain unresolved • 25%
Divestment completed • 25%
Ongoing legal battle • 25%
No resolution • 25%
Operational restrictions imposed • 25%
New concerns arise • 25%
Concerns partially addressed • 25%
Concerns fully addressed • 25%
Concerns remain • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
TikTok implements security measures • 25%
TikTok sold to a U.S. company • 25%
TikTok banned in the U.S. • 25%
Acquisition by U.S. entity • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Continued operation under ByteDance • 25%
Nationwide ban • 25%
Concerns unresolved with TikTok banned • 25%
Concerns unresolved with TikTok restricted • 25%
Concerns resolved with TikTok allowed to operate • 25%
Other outcome • 25%