Market
How will the deportation operation affect U.S.-Latin America relations by December 31, 2025?
1
Donald Trump•Department of Homeland Security•Tren de Aragua•White House•Karoline Leavitt•Trump•United States
Resolution / Starting Odds
Relations significantly worsen • 25%
Relations slightly worsen • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Relations improve • 25%
Analyses and reports from diplomatic sources or major news outlets
Story
Trump Administration Begins Mass Deportations Using U.S. Air Force; 538 Migrants Arrested
Jan 24, 2025, 12:21 PM
President Donald Trump's administration has launched a large-scale deportation operation, utilizing U.S. Air Force aircraft to repatriate illegal immigrants. The U.S. Transportation Command has been instructed to prepare military assets, including C-130 and C-17 aircraft, to support the Department of Homeland Security's deportation flights. In the initial days of the operation, 538 illegal immigrants have been arrested, including members of criminal gangs such as Tren de Aragua, child predators, and a suspected terrorist. Photos released by the White House show migrants boarding U.S. Air Force planes as deportation flights begin. The White House Press Secretary, Karoline Leavitt, stated that deportation flights have begun, emphasizing that President Trump is sending a strong message that those who enter the United States illegally will face serious consequences. The administration is portraying this initiative as fulfilling campaign promises, labeling it the largest mass deportation in U.S. history with the slogan 'Promises made, promises kept.'
View original story
Similar markets
Individual diplomatic actions • 25%
Other response • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Collective condemnation • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Formal diplomatic protests • 25%
Strained relations • 25%
More lenient immigration policies • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Policy reversal • 25%
Stricter immigration policies • 25%
Opposed • 25%
No Official Response • 25%
Supportive • 25%
Neutral • 25%
Improved Relations • 25%
No Change • 25%
Strained Relations • 25%
Severely Strained Relations • 25%
Unclear • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Strengthened relations • 25%
Strained relations • 25%
Condemnation from UN • 25%
Support from allied countries • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Mixed reactions • 25%
Increased consular support • 25%
Bilateral agreements on migration • 25%
Reduction in deportations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Relations deteriorate • 25%
Agreement reached • 25%
Ongoing negotiations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Less supportive • 25%
More supportive • 25%
Uncertain/Other • 25%
Policy suspended • 25%
Policy remains unchanged • 25%
Policy becomes stricter • 25%
Policy becomes more lenient • 25%
Resolution with new agreement • 25%
Continuation of current tensions • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Escalation to trade disputes • 25%