Market
What will be the outcome of U.S.-Mexico tensions over immigration by December 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Resolution with new agreement • 25%
Continuation of current tensions • 25%
Escalation to trade disputes • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official announcements, verified news reports
Story
Mexico Denies U.S. Deportation Flight to Guatemala on Thursday, Stalls Trump's Immigration Plan
Jan 24, 2025, 10:38 PM
Mexico has denied a U.S. military plane permission to land on Thursday, thwarting the Trump administration's efforts to deport immigrants to the country. The incident involved a flight that was part of a broader initiative to deport immigrants. Two other flights successfully deported about 80 immigrants each to Guatemala, but the flight intended for Mexico was canceled after Mexican authorities refused to grant landing permission. This action has been attributed to rising tensions between the U.S. and Mexico, exacerbated by President Donald Trump's immigration policies, including threats of tariffs and the reinstatement of the 'remain in Mexico' policy.
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Policy change by U.S. • 25%
Continued tensions • 25%
Resolution through negotiation • 25%
Policy change by Mexico • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Increased cooperation • 25%
Reduced cooperation • 25%
No Significant Change • 25%
Strained Relations • 25%
Improved Cooperation • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased restrictions • 25%
Maintained current stance • 25%
Strengthened cooperation • 25%
Other • 25%
Strained relations • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
No change • 25%
Severely damaged relations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Bilateral agreements on migration • 25%
Increased consular support • 25%
Reduction in deportations • 25%
Increased Deportations • 25%
New Visa Restrictions • 25%
Pathway to Citizenship • 25%
No Significant Changes • 25%
Relations unchanged • 25%
Relations fluctuate • 25%
Relations worsen • 25%
Relations improve • 25%
Agreement reached • 25%
Flights resume with conditions • 25%
Other • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Stricter policies • 25%
Looser policies • 25%
Mixed changes • 25%
Partial agreement reached • 25%
Diplomatic talks ongoing • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Successful agreement reached • 25%
Neutral Stance • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Negative Response • 25%
Positive Engagement • 25%