Market
Will there be legal challenges to the deportation operation by December 31, 2025?
3
Donald Trump•Department of Homeland Security•Tren de Aragua•White House•Karoline Leavitt•Trump•United States
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Court records or major news outlets reporting on legal filings
Story
Trump Administration Begins Mass Deportations Using U.S. Air Force; 538 Migrants Arrested
Jan 24, 2025, 12:21 PM
President Donald Trump's administration has launched a large-scale deportation operation, utilizing U.S. Air Force aircraft to repatriate illegal immigrants. The U.S. Transportation Command has been instructed to prepare military assets, including C-130 and C-17 aircraft, to support the Department of Homeland Security's deportation flights. In the initial days of the operation, 538 illegal immigrants have been arrested, including members of criminal gangs such as Tren de Aragua, child predators, and a suspected terrorist. Photos released by the White House show migrants boarding U.S. Air Force planes as deportation flights begin. The White House Press Secretary, Karoline Leavitt, stated that deportation flights have begun, emphasizing that President Trump is sending a strong message that those who enter the United States illegally will face serious consequences. The administration is portraying this initiative as fulfilling campaign promises, labeling it the largest mass deportation in U.S. history with the slogan 'Promises made, promises kept.'
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Similar markets
Operation modified • 25%
Operation halted • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Operation continues unchanged • 25%
Court orders halting operations • 25%
No lawsuits filed • 25%
Multiple lawsuits filed • 25%
Single lawsuit filed • 25%
Upheld • 25%
Overturned • 25%
Partially Overturned • 25%
No Ruling • 25%
Operations Fully Blocked • 25%
Operations Fully Upheld • 25%
Operations Partially Blocked • 25%
Operations Partially Upheld • 25%
American Immigration Council • 25%
ACLU • 25%
Other • 25%
National Immigration Law Center • 25%
Challenges reaching appellate courts • 25%
Challenges reaching the Supreme Court • 25%
No significant legal challenges • 25%
Challenges in lower courts only • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Settlement reached • 25%
Ruling in favor of plaintiffs • 25%
Dismissed • 25%
Ruling in favor of government • 25%