Market
What will be the outcome of US-Colombia deportation flight relations by end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Agreement reached • 25%
Ongoing negotiations • 25%
Relations deteriorate • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Official government announcements or verified news reports
Story
Colombia Refuses Entry to US Military Deportation Flights; Petro Says "Migrant Is Not a Criminal"
Jan 26, 2025, 01:30 PM
Colombian President Gustavo Petro has denied entry to US planes carrying deported Colombian migrants, stating that "a migrant is not a criminal and must be treated with the dignity that a human being deserves." Petro ordered US military planes carrying Colombian migrants to return to the US, and two deportation flights were refused entry into Colombia last night. This action comes in response to US President Donald Trump's first speech as the 47th President, in which he promised to immediately stop the infiltration of illegal immigrants into the United States.
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Agreement terminated • 25%
Minor disputes resolved • 25%
Agreement honored without issues • 25%
Major disputes lead to sanctions • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Flights resume with new protocols • 25%
Flights resume without new protocols • 25%
Flights remain suspended • 25%
Colombia accepts deportation flights • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Continued stalemate • 25%
U.S. lifts visa suspension without compliance • 25%
No agreement, flights resume unilaterally • 25%
Flights remain suspended • 25%
Agreement reached • 25%
Other diplomatic outcome • 25%
Protocol established • 25%
Military flights accepted • 25%
Civilian flights only • 25%
No resolution • 25%
Tariffs imposed • 25%
Sanctions imposed • 25%
No action taken • 25%
Visa revocations • 25%
Agreement renegotiated • 25%
Full compliance • 25%
Partial compliance • 25%
No compliance • 25%
New terms negotiated • 25%
Agreement fully honored • 25%
Partial compliance • 25%
Agreement breached • 25%
Decreased deportations • 25%
Protocol with Colombia • 25%
Use of civilian flights • 25%
Policy remains unchanged • 25%
U.S. maintains tariffs and sanctions • 25%
Mutual agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Colombia concedes to U.S. demands • 25%